The Illusion of Confidence

One of the questions I get asked most by younger leaders is, "How are you so confident when you're making decisions?"

I always smile because the question is based on an illusion. What people see is confidence. What they don't see is experience. Most of the decisions I make today are decisions I've made dozens, if not hundreds, of times before. They're familiar. I've seen similar situations, made mistakes, learned from them, and gradually built up what I can only describe as leadership muscle memory.

Think about learning to drive. The first time you pull away from the side of the road, every movement feels deliberate. Mirrors, clutch, gears, steering, checking traffic... you're thinking about everything. Twenty years later, you barely notice yourself doing it.

Leadership is no different. When you've handled difficult conversations a hundred times, managed performance issues repeatedly, recruited staff, dealt with complaints, planned projects or navigated organisational change over many years, those decisions become more instinctive. They look like confidence from the outside, but they're really experience showing itself.

That's the easy part. The interesting part is what happens when the decision genuinely matters.

Should we bid for work that's just outside our normal scope? Should we invest in a new business? Should we sign a contract that could transform the company, or seriously damage it if we get it wrong? Should we recruit ten more people based on what we think will happen next year?

Those decisions are different. I don't know many experienced leaders who make those decisions without feeling nervous. I certainly don't. In fact, I'd be more worried about someone who wasn't. Big decisions carry real consequences. People's jobs, customers, reputations, finances and sometimes entire businesses depend on getting them right. If there isn't at least a little anxiety attached to that responsibility, I think something is missing.

Being nervous doesn't mean you're weak. It usually means you understand what's at stake.

When those decisions come along, confidence isn't what leads the process. Curiosity does.

We gather information. We ask questions. We challenge our own thinking. We speak to people who know more than we do. We look for risks we may have missed. We're not trying to prove we're right. We're trying to make the best decision possible with the information we have at the time. Eventually there comes a point where there isn't any more information to collect. That's when leadership starts.

You make the decision, knowing there's no guarantee you'll be right. I think that's where many young leaders get caught out. They assume experienced leaders know the answer.

Often, we don't. We've simply learned that waiting forever isn't a strategy either. One thing experience has taught me is that confidence isn't the absence of doubt. It's the willingness to move forward despite it.

So, if you're a new leader and you feel nervous before making an important decision, don't mistake that for incompetence. It probably means you care. It means you've recognised the responsibility that comes with leadership. And that's a good thing.

The leaders I'd worry about aren't the ones who admit they're nervous.

They're the ones who believe they can't possibly be wrong.